KABUL: After ayear of record bloodshed, Afghans are bracing for an even deadlier 2019 withthe threat of a US drawdown and a looming presidential vote likely to fuelviolence. President Donald Trump's plan to slash the number of US soldiers inAfghanistan before negotiators have struck a peace deal with the Taleban hascrushed hopes among many Afghans for an end to the 17-year conflict. The news,which the White House has not confirmed, capped an annus horribilis for thewar-weary country which by some estimates has overtaken Syria as the world'sdeadliest conflict zone this year.
Ordinary Afghans,who have long borne the brunt of the relentless fighting, told AFP they feltincreasingly despondent about the future as the Taleban and the Islamic Stategroup adapt to ramped up security to carry out almost daily attacks oncivilians and security forces. "It is getting worse every day," saidelectrical engineering student Mohammad Hussain in Kabul, one of the deadliestplaces in the country for civilians. "The security we had four or fiveyears back was better than now. Even when we don't have attacks in Kabul, weare waiting for something to happen."
ZabihullahShirzad, who owns a garbage collecting company in the Afghan capital, said hecould not remember a bloodier year than 2018 and predicted 2019 would be evendeadlier. "We will see more killing and bloodshed," the 42 year oldsaid. "I am not optimistic about the peace talks." Their gloomycomments reflect the findings of a Gallup poll published in October, whichshowed an unprecedented level of pessimism among Afghans. And an AsiaFoundation study in December suggested more than 60 percent of Afghans thoughtthe country was moving in the wrong direction - unchanged from a year earlier.
'Very bad year'
Several keyindicators show Afghan security locked in a downward spiral, underscoring theirnegativity. Civilian deaths hit a record high in the first half of the year,while the Taleban are slaughtering Afghan forces in greater numbers than everbefore. This year was also marked by some of the deadliest suicide attackssince the start of the war in 2001, including an ambulance bomb blast thattargeted a crowded street in Kabul in January, killing more than 100 people andwounding hundreds more.
The bloodshed wasexacerbated by Trump's more aggressive strategy for Afghanistan, which hereluctantly announced in August 2017, putting thousands more US boots on theground and giving its air units greater leeway to go after the Taleban and IS.One estimate puts the number of conflict-related deaths at more than 40,000this year - almost equal to the combined total for Syria and Yemen - accordingto data compiled by the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event DataProject.
Afghanistan alsotook the unenviable title of deadliest country in the world for journalists,with 15 media workers killed, including AFP chief photographer Shah Marai andAFP driver Mohammad Akhtar. Adding to the misery was the worst drought inrecent history, which forced more than 250,000 people to abandon their homes,overwhelming humanitarian agencies as they struggled to provide enough food andshelter. Thousands of displaced families have set up makeshift tents on the edgeof cities, and some are even selling their young daughters into marriage torepay debt or buy food. "It was a very bad year - the situation has notimproved at all," said Thomas Ruttig, co-director of Afghanistan AnalystsNetwork.
Pain of war
Some observerssaw positive signs that, if the circumstances are right, could translate intogood news in 2019. An unprecedented three-day ceasefire in June was widelycelebrated by Afghans taking selfies and sharing ice cream with Talebanfighters, seemingly underscoring the desire for peace on both sides. And theinsurgents' apparent willingness to meet with US officials as part of a pushfor peace talks in recent months could bode well for a deal, said LotfullahNajafizada, director of Afghanistan's largest private broadcaster Tolo News."I think Afghanistan will pass 2019 with some success. I hope it will be ahistoric year," Najafizada said.
But slashing UStroop numbers - which many fear would be a harbinger for a full withdrawal -before any deal is struck could trigger a civil war "with a regionaldimension", warned Davood Moradian, director general of the AfghanInstitute for Strategic Studies. Ruttig said Washington should putAfghanistan's need for peace ahead of its own desire to pull out troops and savemoney. "They are as much a part of the problem as they could be thesolution," he said, describing US policy in Afghanistan as"dysfunctional".
Another spoilerin 2019 could be Afghanistan's presidential election, originally scheduled forApril 20 but now likely to be pushed back to the summer. The vote, whichPresident Ashraf Ghani plans to contest, could unleash a similar wave ofviolence that marred October's shambolic and bloody parliamentary election. Butafter so many years of war, Afghans are "more resilient" and thecountry would survive, Moradian said. "Many Afghans have learned to livewith the chronic pain of war," he said. "That pain does not stop thempursuing a normal life." - AFP