TOKYO: JapanesePrime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to visit Iran next week in an apparentmediation mission to ease tension between Iran and the United States. Followingare some of the reasons for Abe's June 12-14 trip, and what it mightaccomplish.
Why is Abe goingto Iran?
Japan is in aunique position as a US ally because it has long maintained close ties withIran, making Abe an ideal mediator. US-Iran ties have frayed since PresidentDonald Trump pulled out of an Iran nuclear deal in which it agreed to curb itsnuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. The United States hasalso hinted at military confrontation, sending extra forces to the region tocounter what it describes as Iranian threats.
During a visit toJapan last month, Trump welcomed Abe's help in dealing with Iran, highlightingthe "very good relationship" between Tokyo and Tehran. "I dobelieve that Iran would like to talk," Trump said at the time. "Andif they'd like to talk, we'd like to talk also." For its part, Japan iskeen to see stability in the Middle East as the bulk of its oil imports comefrom the region, although it stopped buying Iranian oil this year because ofU.S. sanctions.
What can Abe achieve?
The most Abecould probably achieve would be to persuade Iran and the United States toresume direct talks, possibly in a third country. Both sides may be seeking aface-saving way out of the confrontation, experts say. Abe could, for example,invite Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to a G20 summit that Japan is hostingat the end of June, said Momoyo Kondo, a research fellow at the Middle EastInstitute of Japan.
If that is notpossible, Abe could relay a message from Iran to the United States, perhaps atthe G20 summit, said Motohiro Ono, an opposition lawmaker and former diplomatwho served in various Middle Eastern countries. Japan is not a party to theIran nuclear agreement, which was signed by Iran, Russia, China, Britain,France, Germany and the United States, so he would not be able to directlyaddress that. Japan won Russia's endorsement to try to ease tension with Iranwhen Japanese and Russian foreign and defense ministers held four-way talks inTokyo last week.
History ofJapan-Iran ties
Japan has had agenerally positive relationship with Iran going back about 70 years, mostlyrevolving around oil. In the 1950s, Japanese refiner Idemitsu broke a Britishoil embargo of Iran and sent a tanker to get a shipload of gasoline and dieseloil. Thirty years later, during the Iran-Iraq war, Abe's father, then ForeignMinister Shintaro Abe, visited both countries to try to mediate. A young ShinzoAbe joined him as his secretary.
"Japan hasbeen seen in the Middle East as a country that links the United States with therest of the world," said Kondo. Broadly speaking, Japan has maintainedneutral ties with many Middle Eastern countries because it relies on them foroil. "Japan's focus on commercial and diplomatic relations in the region,rather than military deployments, may also mean Tehran perceives it to be moreneutral than other US allies," said Richard Mallinson, a senior analyst atEnergy Aspects in London.
Is Iran a bigsource of oil?
Iran has been amajor supplier of crude to Japan, providing 10-15 percent before 2012, when USsanctions began to tighten. That still lagged imports from Saudi Arabia,however, long Japan's main supplier. Japan has at times been caught in thepolitical crossfire between Iran and the United States, with Japan invariablyfalling into line with its old ally.
In 2004, Japan'sInpex agreed to take a 75% stake in Iran's Azadegan oil field, one of theworld's biggest oil discoveries in the last 30 years. But under US pressure,Inpex reduced the stake to 10 percent in 2006, and then exited completely in2010. Japan stopped importing Iranian oil by a deadline to avoid US sanctionslast month - although it has pushed for imports to continue. Japan wants tokeep open the option of Iranian oil to protect it from possible disruptions inSaudi Arabian or UAE supplies, a US diplomat told Reuters recently.
Political risksand rewards
There is not alot of downside for Abe. Even if he is not able to achieve a breakthrough, hewill be seen as an international statesman seeking peace. A successful tripwould make him look good ahead of an upper house election this summer, andmight encourage him to call a snap general election at the same time. Abe hashad little success in his efforts to reach a deal with Russia on disputedislands or resolve a feud with North Korea over abducted Japanese citizens -two issues he has hoped to resolve to cement his legacy. - Reuters