Washington hastightened its economic sanctions on Iran, but the question people are wonderingabout is whether US sanctions on Iran is an escalation towards a destructivewar in the region or just a political maneuver and strategy of maximumpressure. And what is the future of the Gulf region under this tension?
I think thesituation does not allow anyone to make an accurate prediction of what willhappen in the coming days. Many analysts do not seem to be able to predict aspecific scenario for the future, except for a lot of warnings on theseriousness of the situation to Iran and the region.
Some countriesexpressed concern over US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, saying they wouldignore the sanctions, including India and China. The US administrationreinstated and expanded US sanctions and ordered countries around the world tostop buying Iranian oil. But not all countries accepted the call. The Chineseforeign ministry condemned the tightening of US sanctions on Iran. China for example,is the main buyer of Iranian oil, followed by India, South Korea and Turkey.
But, it is clearto the observer that the Europeans feel helpless towards the USadministration's current policy because they have no influence on PresidentDonald Trump and their inability to compensate Iran's economy for possibledamage to US sanctions. Tehran has indicated its intention to resume uraniumenrichment activities if its European partners fail to find a solution to allowit to overcome the economic consequences of sanctions imposed by Washington.
US threats toprevent Iran from exporting its oil, followed by the movement of a number ofnaval vessels in the direction of the Gulf to respond to Iran's announcement toretreat from the implementation of some of its obligations in the nuclearagreement in 2015 led many to wonder what are the risks that threaten thecountries of the region here as a result of this escalation?
I do not thinkthat the impact of the US sanctions will be on Iran alone, but on othercountries too, especially in the Middle East. Many Gulf States, includingKuwait, a strategic ally of the United States, have strong and old economic andpolitical ties with Iran, but how can they be affected by the currentescalating crisis between Tehran and Washington? I think maintaining balancedrelations with the two sides is not going to be easy for Gulf states.
Because of theintention of the United States to lower Iranian oil exports to zero, Tehran hasthreatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, saying that if it cannotexport its oil abroad, none of the countries of the region will export oilthrough the Hormuz. The American military moving a number of its naval vesselsto the Gulf will not be frightening for a country like Iran, because it willnot give in to these pressures and will not be the only one to be affected bythe complexity of the landscape in the region.
Iran is producing1.3 million barrels of oil per day according to its commitments to OPEC. Iwonder if the Gulf countries will be able to compensate for this shortage.Also, I do not think the Gulf states have a desire to enter into a newchallenge in the region. Right now, the region is in a difficult condition withthe continuation of the war in Yemen and its repercussions.
I expect a majorcrisis in the oil market that threatens oil supply, which is a high price topay, so the situation needs a quick solution to stop the tension in the regionbetween the two countries, because both scenarios - whether Iran closing theStrait of Hormuz or America succeeding in "zero" exports of Iranianoil - will not benefit anyone.
I think that thepositions of the surrounding countries will vary between those who will try tocreate a balanced attitude to maintain relations with US and Iran and those whosee Iran as a dangerous enemy to their interests and welcome US pressure. Iexpect that this will be hard for countries with economic or politicalinterests with Iran, such as Turkey and Iraq, with a lower percentage of riskfor a country such as Qatar, which recently headed towards Iran after the Gulfcrisis. Kuwait, as usual, will maintain its diplomatic policy and will try tomaintain a balanced relationship to avoid possible damage if it takes a clearhostile stand against any party. Let's not forget that the United States andIran are Iraq's main political and economic partners.
On the otherhand, Iran still has power in the region and is ready to defend its oil-basedeconomic interests. Because nearly a year after the United States pulled out ofthe nuclear deal, the sanctions do not seem to have changed the Iranianinfluence in the region. Iran may ease dependence on oil and promoteself-sufficiency to create an economic model that can continue even underexternal pressures. Yet, consumers around the world may be more likely to see achange in oil prices in the coming months.
Until now, mostexperts see the possibility of a war as not possible and consider the situationas a temporary tension that can be calmed, because closing the Strait of Hormuzwill allow the United States to take the matter as a pretext for war, and thiswill harm everyone. So I see that what the United States is doing is a policyof maximum pressure.
Now there is anurgent need to remedy the tense situation to avoid further escalation in theregion, because keeping up with US sanctions is difficult for the countries inthe region and European intervention is required to calm the tension, becausethe potential damages will be at the expense of Washington's allies andinterests in the world.
By Muna Al-Fuzai