DHAKA: PrimeMinister Sheikh Hasina heads to the polls in Bangladesh this week on course fora historic victory, while her ailing opponent faces an uncertain future in acolonial-era Dhaka jail. Bangladesh's "Battling Begums" have beenfighting each other for three decades, but the 71-year-old Hasina is set toextend her record as the country's longest serving leader after dispatchingKhaleda Zia, her chief rival. The two women have been political royalty-begums-sincethe 1980s. Zia, 73, is the widow of a military dictator and Hasina's father wasthe country's founding leader.
They joinedforces to dethrone military dictator Hussain Muhammed Ershad in 1990 andrestore democracy. But they became arch-foes after Zia was elected primeminister in 1991, and the duo have alternated in power ever since in the SouthAsian nation. Hasina is now seeking a fourth term and opinion polls indicateshe will have little problem at the December 30 poll despite criticism of hergovernment's slide towards authoritarian rule. Zia meanwhile is serving a17-year jail term on graft charges that her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)insists were "politically motivated".
The convictionsmean Zia cannot contest the poll, which the BNP says will be neither free norfair. It claims thousands of activists have been jailed in recent months. Ziasuffers from arthritis and diabetes, has had knee replacement surgery and canbarely move one of her hands. Western diplomats have written off her chances ofa comeback. "She is politically finished," said one diplomat based inDhaka, adding Zia's only chance for escape would be if she is offered medicalleave abroad. The fallout has spread to the Zia dynasty. Her youngest son diedin exile in Bangkok in 2015. Her eldest child, Tarique Rahman, who mastermindedhis mother's return to power in 2001, went into exile in London in 2008.
In October, hewas sentenced to life in prison for his alleged role in a 2004 grenade attackon a Hasina rally in which at least 20 people were killed. Analysts say that even though she is out ofthe limelight, Zia still casts a huge shadow over the election. "It isfair to say that the conventional portrayal of Bangladeshi politics as the'Battle of the Begums' has taken a back seat, for the moment," saidIllinois State University political science professor Ali Riaz. "But it istoo early to write the political obituary of Khaleda Zia. Although she is noton the ballot, her name and influence is not diminished."
Boycott campaign
Zia's woesstarted with her decision to boycott the 2014 election, which the BNP said wasrigged after Hasina scrapped a caretaker government system used for previouspolls. Dozens were killed in subsequent violence. A nationwide road and railwayblockade the following year, aiming to force Hasina into an early election,left up to 150 more dead. Many people were angered by the campaign and analystssaid it allowed Hasina to launch a crackdown on the BNP.
"Thedecision to boycott the election and then enforcing the blockades weresuicidal," said Ataur Rahman, a political science professor in Dhaka."They weakened the party and handed Hasina a big opportunity to target heropponents and create what has since emerged as a one-party dominant politicalsystem." Few believe that the Zia family will lose its grip on the BNP,especially in a region where political dynasties are a way of life. Zia's son,the acting party head, interviewed aspiring candidates for the party by videoconference from London. "These all are indications that the Zia dynasty isstill very strong and maintains strong authority over the party," saidOslo University lecturer Mubashar Hasan.- AFP