ISTANBUL: Syrianarmy advances in northwest Syria are putting Turkish troops in the firing lineand threaten Ankara's hopes of preventing a new wave of refugees on itssouthern border. The offensive around Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold inSyria, has already forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee towardsTurkey. It has also cut off a Turkish military post deep inside Syria as thedeal to limit fighting in the region, which the Turkish troops were supposed tobe monitoring, collapses.
The breakdown ofthat deal would be a significant blow to President Tayyip Erdogan, who hassteered Turkey closer to Russia in recent years but appears unable to rein backMoscow's support for the Syrian army offensive. Russia, Iran and Turkey agreedin 2017 to set up four "de-escalation zones" to stem fighting betweenSyrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces and rebels, but the Syrian army hasretaken three of those areas and is now advancing in the fourth.
It has enteredthe town of Khan Sheikhoun, effectively cutting off Turkish troops at amilitary post near the town of Morek, 70 km (45 miles) inside Syria. A Turkishconvoy sent to resupply the Morek post was halted on Monday by an air strike."The situation there is of critical sensitivity," Erdogan's spokesmanIbrahim Kalin said after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
Turkey, whichsupports some Syrian rebel factions, has troops deployed at 12 militaryobservation posts around the Idlib region under the 2017 deal with Moscow andTehran, which back Assad's government. That agreement, and a Turkey-Russiaaccord last year aimed at reducing the power of jihadist fighters in the Idlibregion, has at best had only a limited impact.
Turkey complainedthat Syrian and Russia air strikes in the region continued, while Moscow grewincreasingly impatient over what it saw as Ankara's failure to stop jihadistsfrom the former Nusra Front taking over much of Idlib. Russia also says thefighters in Idlib and Hama provinces threatened its Hmeymim air base, less than40 km to the west.
Civilians flee
Turkey insists ithas no plans to abandon or move any of the military posts it set up in Idlib,despite Monday's air strike and the fighting around Morek. "Allobservation posts will continue operations where they are located rightnow," Kalin said, adding that agreements to halt military operationsaround Idlib must be respected.
"Otherwise,both the violation of this agreement and the resulting humanitarian drama willbe inevitable." The United Nations says more than 500,000 people have beenuprooted since the Syrian army began its offensive in late April, most of themescaping deeper into the rebel bastion and towards the border. Turkey, whichopened its border at the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and now hosts 3.6million Syrian refugees, is determined to avoid another influx of civilians -or fighters.
It has built awall along the 800 km Syrian border and says it has identified locations insideSyria to shelter a possible wave of people fleeing the fighting in Idlib."If there is this kind of movement to our borders we will take action andcreate shelters where we are going to accommodate displaced people outside ourborders," Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said this week. He did notspecify whether the camps would be in Idlib province or Turkish-controlledareas of northern Syria around the towns of Azaz, Al-Bab and Jarablus.
Staying put?
Turkey'sdetermination to stand by all 12 of its military posts in Idlib was reiteratedthis week by the government, and a senior security official told Reuters Ankarawas standing by its troops on the ground. "Whichever observation postneeds it, support is provided, the official said.
However, thatwill prove increasingly challenging for Turkey unless there is a change ofcourse by Moscow or Damascus, which has repeatedly said it is committed torecapturing every inch of Syrian territory. "The Turkish observation postsare not constituted to defend themselves and at least one of them has beenencircled by Syrian regime forces," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli from theGerman Marshall Fund. "When the risk of conflict rises too much, Turkeywill probably retreat."
Erdogan willspeak to Putin about Idlib as soon as possible, Kalin told reporters after thecabinet meeting. Just last month, Turkish ties with Russia appeared strongerthan ever as Erdogan took delivery of advanced S-400 Russian missile defenseequipment - despite a threat of U.S. sanctions and strong lobbying by Washingtonto stall the deal. Six weeks later, Moscow and Ankara's differences overnorthwest Syria appear irreconcilable and Turkey's Idlib strategy is in peril.
"The endstate is clear," said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europeand a former Turkish diplomat. Pressure on the southernmost Turkish observationposts - those which are the furthest inside Syria - would spread to otherTurkish positions as the Syrian army offensive continues, and Turkey wouldlikely pull some troops back. "It was a matter of time," Ulgen said."To me the surprise is that it happened so soon after the S-400 episode.It proves how little leverage Turkey has gained with Russia." - Reuters