BRUSSELS: TheEuropean Union is offering new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson a warywelcome, insisting it will consider any detailed new ideas he has on Brexit butcautious lest his gambit is ultimately to blame Brussels for a no-dealdeparture. The 27 remaining EU members say publicly and privately that thedivorce settlement, agreed with London but rejected three times by Britain'sparliament, is closed. Johnson says the Irish backstop, an insurance against ahard border on a new EU frontier between Ireland and Northern Ireland, must bestruck from that Withdrawal Agreement.
"He wants adeal without a backstop, which he himself knows doesn't work," said an EUsource who has been involved in Brexit discussions. "They have to comewith a credible idea." On the eve of his leadership victory, Johnsonevoked the spirit of the moon landing 50 years ago to say frictionless trade atthe Irish border was achievable after Brexit, which is due to happen on Oct 31."October is around the corner. The moon mission was planned for severalyears. It could take 10 years to develop a technical solution," said an EUdiplomat.
Johnson hasspoken by telephone with French President Emmanuel Macron and German ChancellorAngela Merkel, as well as Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission,which has led the EU side of Brexit talks. The British leader has invitations,but so far no scheduled visits to meet his European counterparts before a G7meeting in France at the end of August. Johnson's itinerary so far has focusedon Britain.
Johnson has saidhe would prefer an exit deal, but was willing to pull Britain out of theEuropean Union at the end of October without one, ideally with both sidesretaining zero tariffs. EU sources dismiss the idea of such a mini-deal ormanaged no deal, lacking a divorce bill of over 30 billion pounds ($37.1billion) and retaining certain perks of the single market. "Say you wantmy car, but we can't agree on the price. So you say let's have a mini-deal sothat you can drive it around for two years until we reach an agreement. Whywould I accept this?" an EU diplomat said.
Snap election,blame game
Johnson said in aspeech yesterday, while also insisting the Irish backstop be ditched, that hehad very friendly relations with EU leaders and that Britain would be neitherdisengaged nor aloof and would try to solve the problem. Even if some arelukewarm towards Johnson, they welcome the end of a two-month period with no effectiveBritish leader and say a stronger prime minister might be good.
"It mightmake a difference. We don't know in advance. It could be like Nixon going toChina," an EU diplomat said, referring to US President Richard Nixon's1972 visit to Beijing that abruptly normalized US-China relations. One diplomatdescribed Johnson as a chameleon. "He has many facets. He can be charming.Now he's put forward the bully, but he is capable of acting differently."
Many in Europethough are already downbeat. Norbert Roettgen, an ally of Germany's Merkel,said in a tweet addressed to Johnson that "neither boastful speeches norbullying" would make the EU abandon its principles and unity. Some EUdiplomats and officials believe Johnson is already bent on a no-deal Brexit,even if the current British parliament appears unlikely to accept this and, inthe view of many in Europe, it would devastate the UK economy. But the no-dealcall may be more for domestic consumption.
"He wants tobe divisive, clear, to talk to his base, probably with a view to call anelection soon. We can't rule out an election before October 31," an EUdiplomat said, adding that a larger majority could make Johnson more willing toaccept a compromise and push it through parliament. A UK election campaigncould also likely see a ramping up of the blame game, with Brussels the target,even if EU officials insist compromises on the backstop and Brexit extensionsat Britain's request demonstrate EU flexibility. "There will be acommunication war ... The truth is that blaming Brexit or a no deal on the EUmay be a good communication strategy, but it's simply not the reality," anEU source said. - Reuters