ShareKUWAIT: Heat-related mortality for non-Kuwaiti migrant workers could increase by around 15 percent by the end of the century, according to a Kuwait University study. Also, for every 100 deaths in Kuwait, around 14 could be attributed to heat driven by climate change by the century’s end, says the environmental research letter prepared by Barrak Al-Ahmad from the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, College of Public Health, Kuwait University.
Barrak Al-Ahmad“It is uncertain what climate change could bring to populations and countries in the hot desert environment of the Arabian Peninsula,” the study says. “Not only because they are already hot, countries in this region also have unique demographic profiles, with migrant populations potentially more vulnerable and constituting a large share of the population. In Kuwait, two-thirds of the population are migrant workers and record-high temperatures are already common.”
The study quantifies the temperature-related mortality burdens in Kuwait in the mid- (2050–2059) and end-century (2090–2099) decades under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. “We fitted time series distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline temperature–mortality relationship which was then applied to future daily mean temperatures from the latest available climate models to estimate decadal temperature-mortality burdens under the two scenarios.”
According to the study, by mid-century, the average temperature in Kuwait is predicted to increase by 1.80 degrees C (SSP2-4.5) to 2.57 degrees C (SSP5-8.5), compared to a 2000–2009 baseline. “By the end of the century, we could see an increase of up to 5.54 degrees C,” it points out. “In a moderate scenario, climate change would increase heat-related mortality by 5.1 percent (95 percent empirical confidence intervals: 0.8, 9.3) by end-century, whereas an extreme scenario increases heat-related mortality by 11.7 percent (2.7, 19.0).”
“Climate change induced warming, even under more optimistic mitigation scenarios, may markedly increase heat-related mortality in Kuwait,” the study warns. “Those who are already vulnerable, like migrant workers, could borne a larger impact from climate change.”
Ahmad prepared the study titled ‘Climate change and health in Kuwait: temperature and mortality projections under different climatic scenarios’ in cooperation with Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Kai Chen, Eric Garshick, Aaron S Bernstein, Joel Schwartz and Petros Koutrakis. This study was supported by the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science, the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the Harvard Chan National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Center for Environmental Health.
Substantial increases
The study presents what the researchers believe to be “the first quantitative assessment of climate change and country specific temperature-mortality projections in an inherently hot and hyper-arid area in the Arabian Peninsula.” “We find substantial increases in heat mortality associated with moderate warming projections by mid-century,” it notes. “At the end of the century, we find projected warming to be associated with an increase of heat-related mortality risk of 5.1 percent in a moderate climate change scenario and by 11.7 percent in an extreme one, compared to the baseline decade. Climate-induced mortality seems inevitable even in moderate scenarios.”
“Other temperature-mortality projection studies reported an increase in heat-related mortality in regions having a hot climate,” it further points out. “Central and South America, southern Europe, and southeast Asia are projected to encounter an increase ranging from 10 percent to 17 percent in heat-related mortality under RCP8.5 and by the end of the century. Similarly, hotter regions in China showed stronger future mortality burdens, especially under extreme emission scenarios. In Houston, Texas, there was a notable increase in projected heat-related mortality and a much larger magnitude if the size and age of the population were accounted for, albeit with higher uncertainty.”
“The IPCC sixth assessment report was ‘virtually certain’ that the magnitude and frequency of heat events have increased on the global scale since the last century (Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change 2021),” the study reads. “Compared to pre-industrial times (from 1850 to 1900), the IPCC estimated that there will be a 2.4 C (SSP2-4.5) and 4.4 C (SSP5-8.5) average increase in global temperatures by the end of the century. In Kuwait, compared to 2000–2009 rather than pre-industrial times, we estimated a 2.6 C (SSP2-4.5) and 5.5 C (SSP5-8.5) increase by the end of the century.”
The global average increase is worrying in Kuwait for two reasons, says the study. “First, Kuwait is already on the extreme end of the temperature distribution. An upwards mean shift of a global 2.4 C or 4.4 C increase will result in frequent, and possibly unprecedent heat in Kuwait. Second, the Kuwaiti population, with a high percentage of migrants and growing prevalence of non-communicable diseases, may be particularly vulnerable.”
“Migrant workers work in hazardous occupations,” the study explains. “They tend to work for extended periods outdoors in extreme heat. We previously found that non-Kuwaiti migrant workers were especially vulnerable to extreme temperatures and air pollution. We now estimate that heat-related mortality could increase by more than 15 percent in the distant future for non-Kuwaitis. This is not surprising given the numerous stressors that may impair the health of migrant workers. Greater occupational protections for heat exposure are needed to protect migrant workers and ensure health equity.”
Finally, the study sounds an alarm that Kuwait, “an already hot country”, is expected to endure more frequent and extreme temperatures even under moderate climate change scenarios. It also indicates that “warming of our planet is not evenly distributed.” “Extreme heat in the future may result in additional deaths barring effective adaptation,” the study concludes. “Vulnerable populations, including migrant workers, could bear disproportionate harm from climate change induced warming.”
Figure 1. Distribution of future temperatures. Top panel shows the temperature density in baseline (2000–2009), mid(2050–2059) and end-century (2090–2099) decades under two climate change scenarios in Kuwait. Bottom panel and table show
the corresponding number of days where average 24 h temperature in Kuwait exceeds 40 C.
Figure 2. Average annual temperature increases in the future compared to historical temperatures in Kuwait.
Figure 3. Change in mortality (all-cause non-accidental) for cold and hot temperatures in future decades under two climatechange scenarios compared to the 2000–2009 baseline period in Kuwait.
Figure 4. Change in heat-related mortality in the mid (2050–2059) and end-century (2090–2099) decades compared to a baselinedecade (2000–2009) across different strata in Kuwait.
