TRIPOLI: The
sudden offensive against Tripoli by Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar has taken
pro-government forces and the international community by surprise. But is he
really capable of seizing the Libyan capital?

Why the
lightening assault?

Haftar's
self-proclaimed Libyan National Army launched the assault on Thursday as UN
chief Antonio Guterres visited Tripoli ahead of a planned conference later this
month to hammer out a roadmap for delayed parliamentary and presidential
elections. Haftar believes that "a national conference is a forum in which
all the actors must... show they are willing to accept his absolute
supremacy," said Jalel Harchaoui, research fellow at The Hague-based
Clingendael Institute. The offensive came weeks after Haftar and key rival
Fayez al-Sarraj, who heads the Tripoli-based UN-backed Government of National
Accord, met in Abu Dhabi in February to discuss the creation of a new
government in which he would be represented.

"Because the
new government negotiated at Abu Dhabi was not revealed, Haftar felt that
Tripoli players had not submitted enough to him ahead of the national
conference," added Harchaoui. "So he chose military force to change
the facts on the ground." Analysts also believe Haftar wants to affirm his
military clout after launching successful operations in the east and the south
of the country-spurred by the fact that the international community failed to
react to those past offensives.

He has been
encouraged by "the silence of the international community during the
previous operations, especially in the south" where he struck tribal
alliances, said Tarek Megerisi, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign
Relations. Timing the assault to coincide with Guterres's visit was an act of
defiance. "Haftar made major mistakes. He underestimated the reaction of
the foreign powers, being even so daring as to choose the day (Guterres)
arrived in Tripoli to order the invasion," said Libyan analyst Kaouthar
Hassan.

Is he capable of
seizing Tripoli

Analysts believe
that Haftar over-estimates the strength of his LNA. They say the controversial
field marshal, who backs an administration rival to the GNA based in eastern
Libya, was counting on a quick collapse of Tripoli militias. But pro-GNA
reinforcements from around Tripoli rushed to assist in driving back his forces.
Haftar's first setback took place when he seized control of a key checkpoint
known as "Bridge 27" less than 30 kilometers (18.5 miles) west of
Tripoli.

Pro-government
forces from the coastal town of Zawiya battled them, retook the base and
captured more than 100 of Haftar's men. "Haftar is not capable of waging
the battle for Tripoli," said Libyan analyst Farhat Asseid. "He has
already faced a moral setback when he hastily decided to attack the checkpoint
near Tripoli," he said. Megerisi agreed. "Haftar is not as strong as
he appears and cannot in the end deliver stability to Libya," he said.
Powerful armed groups from Libya's western city of Misrata have also said they
were ready to halt Haftar's "cursed advance". "The Misrata
militias are more important (in numbers) than Haftar's forces," said Ali
Bensaad, an expert on Libya and professor at the French Institute of
Geopolitics.

Is the LNA a real
army?

The self-styled
LNA is Soviet-trained and made up of former officers from the Libyan army,
militiamen, fighters from allied tribes and Salafists. "Despite the
effective branding, Haftar is not actually in control of an army in the
traditional sense of the term," said Megerisi. "The LNA is a shaky
alliance between various militias of tribal, religious and local interests
around a core of more traditional forces who themselves are highly compromised
by Salafist components."

"From an
institutional and historical point of view... it is impossible for now to
affirm that Haftar was right to present his coalition as a real army with a
relatively clear discipline and a clear chain of command," said Harchaoui.
For Libyan university professor Ahmad al-Messalati, Haftar "is capable of
taking Tripoli but only on one condition", if he manages to form
"strong and efficient alliances with certain armed groups" in Tripoli
to ensure his forces can enter the capital without bloodshed. - AFP