From corona to Eurasia: Ukraine is just a station in the Middle!

By Prof Abdullah Yousef Sahar Mohammad

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From the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 to the Ukraine crisis, large international bubbles have exploded, heralding the arrival of a new world order. Usually, world systems change after wars between the great powers that separate the victor from the vanquished, so that the first party forms the configuration of the world system according to its power and interests. It is rare, however, for a dominant superpower to withdraw from the scene without a war so that the competing parties re-design the world order differently. This exception occurred when the Soviet Union decided to withdraw and left space for the United States to assume the role of forming a unipolar international system! But America, over the past thirty years, could not do that for many reasons related to the American interior and the external international environment.

During the thirty years that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, a great deal of transformation of the international system have taken place. In addition, during the past thirty years, a new conceptualization of power has appeared and states along with non-governmental entities interact in an unprecedented manner in history. Furthermore, new signs and forms of concepts of power have been advanced by the technological revolution paving the way to a new space evolution. During this era, the coronavirus pandemic bubble exploded. All these monumental events have contributed to shaping many potential transformations. Examples of such ramifications have expressed their forms in new types of alliances such as the tacit collusion between China, Russia, and Iran. Another episodic event that appeared in the international order is expressed in the amalgamation of technology and politics which shaped the new virtualization era of international order and maybe virtual states in the near future.

It can be said that the coronavirus pandemic contributed to bursting the bubbles of evolutionary change that were hiding behind the smoke of slow change. Coronavirus, which changed, or rather accelerated, the structure of international relations in a different way than it was before, has led to a very important result, which is embodied in the weakness of the United States as a hegemonic power trying to assume responsibility of international stability. This pandemic also contributed to accelerating the rearrangement of global economic relations and drawing new invisible alliances that reject the so-called, Pax Americana.
Accordingly, the new American strategy emerged in light of all these changes in order to target the escalation of its competitor’s influence in some regional spheres. To make it very clear, the US is targeting China, Russia, and Iran raising political domination. Consequently, Ukraine for the United States is merely a spearhead in undermining the Russian influence on the republics that disintegrated from the former Soviet Union. Within this contestation arena, the war between Russia and Ukraine is deliberately motivated to serve as traps surrounding the movement of the Russian bear looking forward to its new role in the coming multi-polar system.

Alas, the tragic story of wars will not end in Ukraine, but probably extend to the entirety of the two continents, Europe and Asia (Eurasia), and then there will be great repercussions and forebodings, and the United States and its “honest” European allies will not be able to confront the Triple Alliance with a military counteraction, but all that is there are economic and political movements followed by understandings. The hard truth, that the United States should learn, is that Pax Americana became like a mirage. However, in the real world, a newly multinational system is evolving and this fact should be recognized. The United States should accept sharing Hollywood theater with new actors to prevent being a rogue state as Samuel Huntington has stated. It is very obvious that the United States cannot be the only superpower but if it continues such international behaviors, it will definitely be the “lonely” superpower that has lost even its closest friends and associates.
Yet, the important question; particularly for political scientists, is how these hard strategies will shape the upcoming international scenarios? It is a huge question that needs great minds.
– Prof Abdullah Yousef Sahar Mohammad is a Professor at Kuwait University’s Political Science Department

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