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WAGAH, India: India's BSF soldier Purnam Kumar Shaw (center) is seen after he was handed over to India, at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post, about 35kms from Amritsar.  — AFP
WAGAH, India: India's BSF soldier Purnam Kumar Shaw (center) is seen after he was handed over to India, at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post, about 35kms from Amritsar. — AFP

No clear victor in India-Pakistan clash; jet likely downed: Experts

As ceasefire holds, experts sound alarm over lack of restraint during conflict

NEW DELHI/PARIS: Four days after a ceasefire between India and Pakistan eased fears of all-out war, the world is closely monitoring the aftermath. The recent flare-up in violence was the most serious since the rivals' last open conflict in 1999, sparking global concern that it could escalate into a full-scale war. Kuwait Times has rounded up the latest developments.

Guard returned

On Wednesday, Pakistan returned a captured border guard to India, in a fresh sign of detente. The guard was captured a day after an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir which killed 26 people and sparked tit-for-tat missile, drone and fighter jet attacks. No group claimed responsibility for the April 22 attack but India blamed Pakistan for backing it. Islamabad rejects the accusations and has called for an independent probe.

"Purnam Kumar Shaw, who had been in the custody of Pakistan Rangers since 23 April 2025, was handed over to India," India's Border Security Force said in a statement. The handover was "conducted peacefully and in accordance with established protocols," it added. "I am very happy today," Shaw's wife Rajani, who is pregnant, told reporters following the announcement. She had earlier told the Indian Express newspaper that before the ceasefire she had "lost all hope".

Pakistan's army announced on Wednesday a new death toll — 40 civilians, half of them women and children. It also said 13 military service members had died during operations. India has said that 15 civilians and five soldiers died. Despite mutual claims on initial violations, the ceasefire still appeared to be holding on Wednesday.

No clear victor

Experts say no clear victor emerged in the brief conflict between the nuclear-armed foes. Both South Asian countries claim to have achieved their goals in their worst conflict since 1999, without admitting significant losses. "If victory is defined by who lost the most manned aircraft, then India certainly lost this one," said Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie think tank. "But India also succeeded in effectively interdicting a range of Pakistani surface targets and imposing significant costs on Pakistan," Tellis told AFP. "Both sides continue to claim air-to-air kills, but clear evidence remains unavailable at the time of writing," said Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo. "What stands out is the extensive use of conventional long-range strike systems by both sides to target military infrastructure deep within enemy territory, including sites near their capitals," he added.

Little restraint

While slow to begin with, the international community, including the United States, eventually intervened, alarmed by the possibility of further escalation. Hoffmann said the bitter foes showed little restraint despite the absence of "deliberate strikes on critical civilian infrastructure". "Any shift in that direction would... potentially bring the conflict closer to the threshold of nuclear use," said Hoffmann. The global trend towards violence, especially by states facing internal turmoil, demands greater international vigilance, according to Tellis.

Rafale jet claims

Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three advanced French Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. India has not disclosed any losses. Rafale maker Dassault did not comment. According to a European military source, it is "very unlikely" that three Rafales were destroyed, but "credible" that at least one was. Analysts suggest that Indian aircraft were shot down by a Chinese air-to-air missile, the PL-15E, with a range of 145 kilometers (90 miles) in the version acquired by Islamabad, and whose debris was found in Indian territory. Reuters, quoting two US officials, reported that a Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft.

"India lost at least one Rafale to a Pakistani J-10C firing a PL-15 air-to-air missile in an ultra-long-range air engagement," said Carnegie's Tellis. This type of missile can target a position while remaining undetected "until its own radar is activated a few dozen kilometers away, or a few seconds" from its target, according to a French fighter pilot interviewed by AFP. "You can't escape it". — Agencies

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