IDLIB/DAMASCUS: The toppling of Syrian strongman Bashar Al-Assad has been great for Mohammad Al-Badawi. His sales have doubled as beverages he imports cheaply from Turkey into the former-rebel stronghold of Idlib can now be sold in the rest of Syria. For Haytham Joud business has collapsed. He built his food, drinks and consumer goods empire in the capital Damascus under the tight controls of Assad’s protectionist regime. He’s alarmed by the new government’s experiment with a free market economy.

“With all these imports, we need to see what happens to local industries,” Joud said, in a boutique hotel that he owns, tucked away inside the ancient walls of Damascus’ Old City.

“It’s a big challenge.” Their contrasting fortunes reveal a shift in Syria since Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept to power in December. Their new government has promised to undo decades of crony rule under Assad, when the economy was controlled by a handful of tycoons.

Assad’s mismanagement helped pushed the country of 24 million into an economic tailspin, amid Western sanctions and brutal civil war. Most people in regime-held areas liv below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, and exports were dominated by illegal sales of captagon, an amphetamine-like drug. Many Syrians are more hopeful than ever that their country can begin rebuilding after 14 years of conflict.

But the rapid opening-up of Syria has shifted economic power towards businesses in the northwest province of Idlib and to HTS-linked entities, more than a dozen senior businessmen, officials and analysts told Reuters. That’s fuelling resentment among some members of the business community and average citizens, mostly in formerly regime-held areas, who fear that one form of favoritism could be replaced by another - stoking tensions in the ethnically and religiously divided country.

“There is a lot of discontent,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor of leading English-language newsletter Syria Report. “Things are good for Idlibis, of whom there are very few, and things are very bad for other Syrians, who are numerous.” Despite the backlash, Yazigi said, the momentum behind the new administration - following the ouster of Assad’s unpopular authoritarian regime - was carrying it through, for the time being. “Its difficult to oppose it,” he said.

Syria’s economy ministry did not respond to a request for comment. While businessmen in formerly regime-held areas struggle to adapt, Idlib’s traders are cashing in on their expanded internal market, analysts say. They benefit from strong ties to neighboring Turkey, a longtime backer of Syria’s opposition poised to play a major role economically and politically.

At his warehouses in the boomtown Sarmada, near the Turkish border, Al-Badawi watches a forklift operator shift pallets of Pepsi freshly arrived from across the frontier. “They are thirsty for everything inside Syria,” he said.

The shift in Syria’s economy aligns with HTS’s centralized power structure in the remade Syria. It has installed its allies as heads of key ministries, its leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa as president for a five-year transition, and positioned Idlib-based companies as key service providers. HTS is examining scores of businesses based in former regime zones, searching for links to the old regime and seeking compensation via negotiations with firms deemed to have benefited from Assad’s rein.

Public sector salaries across Syria are to be paid by the HTS-linked Shamcash app. But stark differences remain between state employees, depending on geography. In Damascus, people join long lines outside ATMs every morning to withdraw the maximum amount of cash. No such lines are seen in Idlib. People in formerly regime-held areas still make several times less than employees in Idlib, after a promised 400 percent public sector salary raise has not materialized. Many people can’t afford the imported Nescafe instant coffee and Bounty candy bars that have replaced the local imitations formerly on offer on store shelves.

Syria’s economy was historically a mix of industry, agriculture and a strong trading sector. Annual output shrank by as much as 90 percent from around $60 billion on the eve of the 2011 anti-Assad protests that sparked the civil war, according to a World Bank estimate.

US sanctions, which have choked activity, remain in place despite a limited suspension, preventing the resumption of wide-scale foreign trade. The US wants the new government to make progress on eight conditions for further sanctions relief. Damascus says it has made headway on most of them.

Syria’s new rulers proudly view Idlib as a free-market model that they erected under impossible circumstances after seizing it from Assad’s regime more than a decade ago. In Damascus, old cars trundle through city streets left dark by a failing power grid. Painstakingly slow internet keeps online work to a minimum and state institutions have lots of staff but poor productivity.

But in Idlib, roads are lined with fleets of newly imported cars, coming via Turkey from across the world, including Range Rovers and Mini Coopers. They are priced at a third of what they went for under Assad-era customs duties, according to prices quoted by three car dealers.

Although vehicles also arrive via Syria’s Mediterranean ports and a southern crossing with Jordan, buyers flock to Idlib because the prices are lower, the car dealers said. At Idlib’s Bab Al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, trade is up 42 percent in the first quarter of 2025 versus the same period last year, a border agency spokesperson said. — Reuters