WASHINGTON: With the return to the White House of Donald Trump, the United States and the world are set for a major new shakeup as the nationalist president turns the page on four years of nurturing allies and confronting foes. Trump is expected to unleash major new pressure on Iran’s clerical state. After Trump’s first term, outgoing President Joe Biden put a priority on restoring historic US relationships, which again could see tumult as Trump accuses allies of freeloading off the US military and renews questions about NATO, a bedrock of US foreign policy since the Cold War.

On the campaign trail, Trump has raged against China, with both he and Vice President-elect JD Vance casting the Asian power as an enemy. Trump, however, has also insisted that he has a strong relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping — a sort of emphasis on personal diplomacy not entirely different than Biden.

Trump’s personal style could see more fireworks in Latin America, where key US partners Brazil and Colombia and now Mexico are led by leftists. One of Trump’s key campaign promises — the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants — could threaten havoc in the region if carried out, although Trump managed a stable, transactional relationship with Mexico’s leader in his first term. Trump is not known to have an interest in Africa and is unlikely to push for renewal next year of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a key trade pact and priority for the continent, although Republican lawmakers support reauthorization.

Unrestrained ‘Trump 2.0’

Trump has broken sharply with the post-World War II consensus of the two major parties on building military and diplomatic alliances around the world, pursuing an “America First” platform of promoting US primacy above all, especially on trade. Brian Finucane, a former State Department official now at the International Crisis Group, said Trump could be emboldened compared with his last term. “A Trump 2.0 would be very different. He would not have any of those figures who did in fact restrain Trump at some point and in some fashion including at the Pentagon,” Finucane said.

Trump has already raised fears in Taiwan by publicly questioning whether to defend the self-governing democracy, which Beijing claims and has not ruled out seizing by force. Biden, by contrast, went further than previous US presidents by explicitly saying he would send US troops to defend Taiwan.

While most Western allies will shudder to deal again with Trump, his victory is welcome news for conservatives such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Trump on Tuesday’s election victory, but were also quick to stress the challenges posed by his “America First” protectionist trade policy and isolationist rhetoric. “The European Union must stand close together and act in a united manner,” Scholz told reporters, adding that he and Macron were coordinating closely with other EU heads of state and government. Macron said on X that Berlin and Paris would work for a united, stronger Europe within “the new context”. Achieving European unity will however be challenging, not least because over the past years Paris and Berlin have been increasingly at odds on issues ranging from how to finance increased defense spending to trade, and in particular tariffs on China’s electric cars.

The French and Germany leaders are also in delicate political positions at home, with Macron losing much of his power after defeats in elections earlier this year and Scholz struggling to keep his coalition together. “Contrary to claims, Europe is not prepared for the economic impact of higher tariffs, the likely U-turn on Ukraine, and defense spending ultimatums — we expect the EU to divide on similar lines to the US itself,” Eurointelligence analysts said. — Agencies