TOKYO: Japan’s general election on Sunday will be a test for new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is seeking to solidify his position atop a scandal-plagued party. His gamble to call a snap election after winning a close-fought contest last month to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could backfire in a fluid election, however, as opinion polls show the party could cede seats to the opposition.

Ishiba inherited a fractured party struggling to shake off a scandal over undocumented funds after predecessor Fumio Kishida cleared out tainted ministers, disbanded influential factions and stepped down himself, in a bid to regain public trust. But Ishiba still appears to be fighting an uphill battle. While some polls project the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito will maintain their majority, a weekend poll by the Asahi newspaper showed they may struggle, with the LDP potentially losing 50 of the 247 seats it now has. If Ishiba misses his own target of retaining a majority for the ruling coalition, questions are likely to be asked about his capability as premier at a time of economic uncertainty and increasing tension with neighbors China, Russia and North Korea.

‘Tough’ election

A Kyodo News survey on Saturday and Sunday put the current approval rating for Ishiba’s cabinet at 41.4 percent, down from 42 percent a week earlier. The disapproval rating was 40.4 percent in the most recent survey of some 1,260 voters, Kyodo said Sunday. Disapproval in the October 12-13 poll was 36.7 percent. “This election will be really tough and difficult for us,” Ishiba told voters in a campaign speech last week.

A separate weekend survey by the liberal-leaning Asahi Shimbun newspaper found public support for Ishiba’s cabinet at 33 percent, below 39 percent who disapproved. Those results are worse than Kishida faced in 2021 ahead of his first general election as premier: 42 percent approval against 31 percent disapproval, the Asahi said. The daily said its polls indicated that the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito ran the risk of losing a majority in the upcoming vote. Jiji Press said its polls and reporting showed the coalition was likely to retain its majority, although the LDP may not pass the threshold on its own — a possibility reflected in several previous polls by other outlets.

The LDP has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, and holds a majority in the 465-seat lower house. Its long-time coalition partner is Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist lay group that has often lent crucial campaign support to the LDP. Although the LDP’s popularity hit a low of 25.5 percent in June — the lowest since it regained power in 2012 – it remains the most popular party in a fragmented political landscape, with backing from 35.1 percent of respondents in a mid-October poll by public broadcaster NHK. While the LDP still has strong support, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is making inroads. — Agencies