KILIFI COUNTY, Kenya: When farmer Teresa Kahindi harvested nearly two tons of maize two years ago amid a severe drought, her neighbors in the Kenyan coastal county of Kilifi accused her of witchcraft.

Many of her fellow farmers had not produced even a single sack, weighing about 90 kg, of the staple, during the fifth consecutive season of almost no rain in eastern Kenya, where arid conditions can devastate harvests. “They said I was a witch,” said Kahindi, 53, while strolling through her fields of black-eyed peas, mung beans, cassava, finger millet and sunflowers. ”But it’s not true. We can’t farm like we used to do. Now we must rely on climate forecasts.”

Kahindi’s drought-defying harvest was thanks to a sophisticated early-warning system that includes cutting-edge meteorological data, radio and text alerts and on-the-ground teams that ensure communities can take pre-emptive action to avoid crop losses. In March 2022, a month before the rainy season was due to begin, Kahindi was advised to adapt her plans at a seminar for farmers run by county officials.

She prepared her plots with manure to enhance water retention, covered the soil with dry grass mulching to reduce evaporation and planted drought-tolerant maize seeds, which require less water and mature faster than other varieties. “Knowledge can transform farming,” says Kahindi.

Kenya’s early warning system, funded by the government and a patchwork of international agencies, may offer a template for countries to meet the United Nation’s 2022 goal to protect “all people on Earth” by 2027 through early warning systems. The UN launched the Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa in Kenya’s capital of Nairobi last year in an effort to accelerate a slow rollout in other parts of the continent.

“In terms of early warning, Kenya stands out as a big brother for East Africa,” said Zablon Shilenje, the World Meteorological Organization’s coordinator for Africa.

As extreme weather events increase due to manmade climate change, the Kenyan model allows farmers to switch agricultural techniques or the crops they cultivate to adapt to predicted conditions, such as intense droughts or heavy floods. Between 2020 and 2022, the Horn of Africa suffered its worst drought in at least 70 years, exacerbated by the climate phenomenon La Niña. Some 23 million people required humanitarian aid at a cost of more than $1.8 billion.

More people will be exposed to drought as the region’s population is set to double to 400 million by 2055. Food security experts say Kenya’s early warning system has mitigated the impact of disasters – in turn minimizing the likelihood of famine in one of the world’s most food insecure regions.

Between 2010 and 2011, when repeated droughts struck the East African nation, 2.8 million Kenyans were left “severely hungry.” Thanks to early warnings, a million fewer people suffered during similar droughts in 2016 and 2017, even as the US government halved its spending on food aid, according to a report by the US Agency for International Development, or USAID.

A study of FEWS NET data by US researchers found 92 percent of early warnings in Kenya were accurate, aided by better monitoring of socioeconomic factors, such as food prices and violent conflict. While Kenya’s early warning system is now highly accurate at predicting natural disasters, critics say decision-makers don’t always act on time or with enough financial support.

In Kenya’s southern county of Kajiado, home to the pastoralist Indigenous Maasai, drought warnings may not be understood, due to illiteracy rates, or sometimes are not even delivered when there are gaps in government or humanitarian resources. “I need help, I would accept training,” said Ole Mwato, a 46-year-old Maasai who lost 20 cows and 80 goats in the 2020-2022 droughts.

“It’s a lot of pain to lose the animals. There was no grass, no water. That’s why they died.” For now, Kahindi is leading by example, encouraging local farmers to adapt their methods to future weather in order to maximize yields. “We must work together to beat famine,” she said. — Reuters