MOSCOW/WASHINGTON: When eight Russian citizens including a convicted hitman touched down in Moscow on Thursday in a historic prisoner swap with the West, President Vladimir Putin greeted them like heroes. "I want to congratulate you all on your return to your Motherland,” Putin beamed, assuring the group that also included cybercriminals and spies that Russia had not forgotten them for "even a minute”.
Putin’s message — both to those released on Thursday and his agents across the world — was clear: Even if you get caught, the Kremlin has your back. A total of 24 people were freed in Thursday’s exchange — 16 headed to the West and eight to Russia — in the biggest prisoner swap deal since the Cold War.
Russia released US journalists Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva, ex-marine Paul Whelan as well as high-profile domestic dissidents. In return, it secured the largest number of alleged Russian spies freed in a single exchange for over a decade, as well as FSB security service assassin Vadim Krasikov. "For the target audience, Putin brought back his soldiers, the heroes of a hybrid Third World War,” said Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev. "And the audience is not just special services, but millions who feel like citizens of a country at war with a stronger enemy,” he added.
For Putin, the main prize was Krasikov — an elite FSB officer arrested in Germany in 2019 for murdering a former Chechen separatist on what Berlin said was Moscow’s orders. Putin, previously director of the FSB and an officer in its Soviet incarnation the KGB, had long pushed for Krasikov to be included in a prisoner swap deal, an idea that Germany had resisted. The deal will have "strengthened loyalty” among other spies and assassins, said Abbas Gallyamov, an independent political analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter. "Putin can count on them to work with greater dedication,” he added.
‘You’re stuck with me’
In the US, the swap is helping burnish Biden’s legacy and shine some reflected glory on Kamala Harris’s election hopes. In a powerful piece of political theater, Biden and Harris hugged Gershkovich and two other American prisoners as they arrived back on US soil at Joint Base Andrews near Washington. "Joe Biden said he was going to do everything he could to help Kamala Harris get elected. Putting her in that photo op at Air Base Andrews was a part of that,” Frank Sesno, a professor at George Washington University and former White House correspondent, told AFP.
The 81-year-old president insisted that he wasn’t rushing to seal a legacy. Asked on the tarmac late Thursday how important it was to him to get the exchange done knowing he would not seek a second term, he replied that it had "nothing to do” with that. "I’d still get it done even if I was seeking a second term. You’re stuck with me as president for a while, kid,” said Biden.
Like Biden, Harris has been a staunch backer of Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022. Asked what role Harris had played in the swap, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Thursday that she was "very much a core member of the team that helped make this happen.” This included meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a "timely moment” earlier this year when Biden was trying to persuade him to free a Russian assassin who was key to the deal.
But the upshot is not just that Biden wants to secure his legacy and help Harris while doing so — instead, the two goals appear to be one and the same. "Part of his legacy now is to get her elected,” said Sesno. "If Donald Trump is elected and then undoes a lot of things Biden did, that tarnishes and overshadows his legacy,” he said. "What Joe Biden is going to do from here to Election Day is trying to be sure that anything that his administration can claim credit for, Kamala Harris gets a piece of the sunshine.”
Trump strongly criticized the prisoner swap, saying it was a "win” for Russian President Vladimir Putin and could spur other adversaries to detain US nationals. But the former president’s previous boasts that only he could secure Gershkovich’s release had played into Biden’s hands now that the Democrat had done so himself. "He got gazumped by Biden-Harris,” said Sesno. "In some ways they have Donald Trump to thank for the credit that they get for bringing him back.”
‘Win-win’
For the West, the exchange has raised fears Putin could become even more emboldened to take prisoners in what it blasts as "hostage diplomacy”. The Kremlin said Friday it was determined to see the release of more Russians it believes are wrongfully imprisoned in the West. Over the last two years, Russia had been "blatantly” detaining Westerners for a possible swap "as negotiations with the West stalled” amid the Ukraine offensive, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Russia may see the exchange as a great success and "wonderful victory”, political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann said in an interview with Russia’s independent TV Rain. But the reality was more nuanced. "Russia is getting eight clumsy losers who couldn’t do their job and got caught,” she said. "While it is giving away people who, if they want to and if they are able, will become significant political public figures.” — AFP