WASHINGTON: She worries Republican donors, has name recognition, and Democratic Party heavyweights are beginning to line up behind her. Vice President Kamala Harris would be President Joe Biden’s natural successor if he bowed to growing pressure and stepped aside as the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election, top Democrats say.

Now party donors, activists and officials are asking: Does she have a better chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden is staying in the race, he has said repeatedly. Harris, 59, a former US senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman to become president of the United States if she were the party’s nominee and prevailed in the Nov 5 election. She is the first African American and Asian person to serve as vice president.

Her three-and-a-half-year White House tenure has been characterized by a lackluster start, staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central America that did not produce major successes. As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign. The situation has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.

Some polls favor Harris

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the Republican candidate, although she would face a tight contest. A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by six percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent. Harris also trailed Trump, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error. It also found independents back Harris 43 percent-40 percent over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51-39 percent.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll after last week’s televised debate between Trump and a faltering Biden found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42 percent supporting her and 43 percent backing him.

Only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in getting into the race, polled higher among possible alternatives to Biden. Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris with the same odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45 percent of voters saying they would vote for her versus 48 percent for Trump.

Influential Democrats including US Representative Jim Clyburn, the man who was key to Biden’s 2020 win; Rep Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania have signaled Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same to lawmakers, a Congressional aide said.

Harris is taken so seriously, two Republican donors told Reuters they would prefer for Trump to face Biden than her. “I would prefer Biden to stay in place” rather than be replaced by Harris, said Pauline Lee, a fundraiser for Trump in Nevada after the June 27 debate, who said she thought Biden had proved himself to be “incompetent.”

And some on Wall Street, an important Democratic fundraising center, are starting to indicate a preference. “Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to be able to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats’ odds of taking the White House,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, a financial services company, after the debate. “There’s potentially more upside for her chances than Biden’s at this point.”

Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including Black voters, young voters and those who do not approve of Biden’s handling of the Zionist entity war.

“She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition...she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold,” said Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, in a recent op-ed. Democratic and Republican suburban women may also be more comfortable with her then Trump or Biden, he said. As vice president, Harris’s public Zionist strategy is identical to Biden’s, although she was the first senior leader of the US government to call for a ceasefire in March. “Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern” of the movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national “Uncommitted” movement that withheld votes for Biden in the primary based on his support of Zionist entity.

If Biden were to step aside, there could be a competition between other Democrats to become the nominee. If the party were then to choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats say it could lose the support of many Black voters who were critical to Biden’s election win in 2020.

Too lefty?

However, Harris may struggle to reel in moderate Democrats and the independent voters who like Biden’s centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both parties seek independents to help pull them over the finishing line in presidential elections.

“Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party ... and the left wing of the Democratic party cannot win a national election,” said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. “That is the challenge that she will have to overcome if she is the nominee.” Harris would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, a critical advantage with just four months before election day on Nov 5. - Reuters